Borders, once safeguarded by traditional armies, are now increasingly defended by lines of code and firewalls. The landscape of international power is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by the relentless advancement of artificial intelligence and cyberweapons. The next global conflict may well be waged with algorithms rather than bullets, a reality that is unfolding in real time. This existential shift, from election interference to sophisticated digital sabotage, was the compelling subject of a recent discussion on “Cybersecurity Threat & AI” featuring host Lora and seasoned cybersecurity expert Derek.
“We are not just talking about hacking anymore,” Derek emphasized. “We are talking about global strategy. Countries are building AI arsenals, developing cyber doctrine, even redefining warfare itself.” The traditional imagery of tanks and planes is giving way to a new arsenal of malware, autonomous drones, and convincing deepfakes. Nations are investing billions into AI and cyber capabilities, not merely for defense, but to strategically shape narratives, influence economies, and silently destabilize adversaries.
The Global AI and Cyber Race: A Triumvirate of Power
The lead in this high stakes cyber AI race is currently held by three dominant players: the United States, China, and Russia.
The United States leverages its substantial resources and unparalleled private sector innovation to fuel its AI and cyber advancements. Its strength lies in a dynamic ecosystem of technological development.
China presents a unique model, seamlessly blending its corporate AI sector with state objectives, particularly in widespread surveillance and the development of sophisticated warfare capabilities. This integrated approach allows for rapid deployment and extensive application of AI tools.
Russia, in contrast, adopts a more asymmetric approach. Its focus is on low budget, high impact disinformation campaigns and targeted cyber sabotage, often designed to sow discord and disruption with minimal direct confrontation (United States Institute of Peace, 2025).
A compelling example of this new hybrid warfare is evident in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Before conventional forces even advanced, AI powered cyberattacks from Russian Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) groups sought to cripple critical infrastructure. Simultaneously, AI driven bots saturated social media with propaganda, deliberately undermining trust and morale even before physical battles commenced (Cybersecurity Intelligence, 2025). This demonstrates that the objective extends beyond breaching networks; it encompasses the shaping of minds. This phenomenon, known as cognitive warfare, uses AI to influence populations, elections, and diplomatic relations, transforming the cyber realm into a battleground of belief.
The Terrifying Ascent of Autonomous Weapons
The concept of AI in autonomous weapons is no longer a theoretical debate; it is a present reality. Drones that independently identify targets using computer vision, missile defense systems bolstered by predictive AI, and autonomous border surveillance technologies are all in active existence. The technology has outpaced policy, leaving critical ethical questions unresolved.
A profound concern arises regarding who or what decides when a machine is permitted to take a life. The ethical war within the cyber war grapples with the morality of allowing AI to make kill decisions. What are the implications if an adversary adopts such a stance, forcing others to consider similar measures? The risk of an AI misinterpreting another AI, leading to unintended escalation, represents a policy time bomb (Army University Press, n.d.; Falcon Scientific Editing, n.d.; Stop Killer Robots, n.d.).
The Splinternet: Fracturing the Global Digital Landscape
Beyond direct conflict, AI and cyber capabilities are fundamentally altering the nature of the internet itself, leading to what some call the “Splinternet.” Digital borders are becoming a tangible reality. Countries like China, Iran, and Russia have meticulously constructed firewalled ecosystems, exerting stringent control over applications, data flow, and national digital infrastructure. Other nations, such as India and Brazil, are increasingly pushing for data localization laws, reflecting a global desire for digital sovereignty. The once unified internet is becoming fragmented, characterized by regional internets, each governed by its own rules, surveillance mechanisms, and power structures (Cybernews, 2025; Wikipedia, n.d.). This signals not just a cyber war, but a digital land grab, where control over cloud infrastructure, proprietary code, and the setting of digital rules dictates future power dynamics.
The Race Between Policy and Progress
Efforts to establish international norms for AI and cyber warfare are underway, with organizations like the United Nations advocating for cyber norms and NATO establishing a Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre. However, a comprehensive “Geneva Convention” for digital conflict remains elusive, and enforcement mechanisms are largely absent, leaving the landscape largely unregulated (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, n.d.; Cyberlaw Consulting, n.d.).
Global consensus on AI ethics and specific “red lines” is also lacking. While the European Union leads with robust AI regulations, seeking to prohibit certain uses like public facial recognition, major global powers diverge significantly. China’s model prioritizes surveillance, while the United States emphasizes innovation. This creates a persistent tug of war between individual rights and governmental reach (Compliance Hub Wiki, 2025). The alarming reality is that policy debates unfold over years, while AI technology evolves in a matter of weeks. Legislators are often attempting to regulate a previous version of AI while a newer, potentially more dangerous iteration is already in operation.
The consequence of this disparity is significant. A single AI error or, more ominously, an AI system deliberately designed to create chaos, could lead to catastrophic outcomes. This underscores the urgent need for cyber diplomacy and international agreements on what constitutes an unacceptable target in the digital realm: hospitals, electoral systems, and critical infrastructure must be off limits. Without global buy in, these remain mere suggestions without teeth. The risk of a single miscalculation, or a corrupted AI model, leading to widespread blackouts or cross border retaliation is a stark possibility. An AI misinterpreting satellite data and initiating a defensive response could, in essence, trigger a new form of the Cuban Missile Crisis, devoid of human intervention.
Charting the Path Forward: Essential Next Steps
To mitigate these profound risks, the international community must undertake three crucial initiatives:
- Establish a Global Cyber Treaty: This would function as an arms control agreement for digital weapons and AI, defining clear red lines that all nations commit to respect and uphold.
- Form National AI Ethics Boards: Governments must create multidisciplinary boards comprising ethicists, technologists, and military strategists to collaboratively assess and guide AI deployment before it occurs.
- Conduct Cross Border Response Drills: Similar to earthquake simulations, nations need to conduct joint exercises for AI triggered escalations, involving both allies and potential rivals, to foster understanding and de escalation protocols.
Treating cyber and AI capabilities with the same gravity as nuclear power, acknowledging their immense power and potential for catastrophe, is the appropriate mindset. AI is a powerful force multiplier, but without careful regulation and international cooperation, it risks becoming a force divider. In warfare, division can carry a profoundly human cost.
The question of whether the next global conflict will begin with code rather than troops is, in Derek’s sobering assessment, already answered. “It already has,” he concluded. “We are just not calling it that yet. The battlefield is digital. The soldiers are synthetic. The consequences? All too human.”
References:
Army University Press. (n.d.). Pros and Cons of Autonomous Weapons Systems. Retrieved from https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/English-Edition-Archives/May-June-2017/Pros-and-Cons-of-Autonomous-Weapons-Systems/
Compliance Hub Wiki. (2025, January 31). Global AI Law Comparison: EU, China & USA Regulatory Analysis. Retrieved from https://www.compliancehub.wiki/global-ai-law-snapshot-a-comparative-overview-of-ai-regulations-in-the-eu-china-and-the-usa/
Cyberlaw Consulting. (n.d.). International Cybercrime Treaties and Case Laws: An Overview (Till December 2024). Retrieved from https://www.cyberlawconsulting.com/global_cybersecurity_sco_framework.php
Cybernews. (2025, June 25). As the splinternet grows, Europe faces a new digital reality. Retrieved from https://cybernews.com/security/splinternet-grows-europe-faces-new-digital-reality/
Cybersecurity Intelligence. (2025, February 18). Ukraine Warns Of Growing Russian Use Of AI In Cyberwar Operations. Retrieved from https://www.cybersecurityintelligence.com/blog/ukraine-warns-of-growing-russian-use-of-ai-in-cyberwar-operations-8259.html
Falcon Scientific Editing. (n.d.). The Ethics of AI in Autonomous Weapons. Retrieved from https://falconediting.com/en/blog/the-ethics-of-ai-in-autonomous-weapons/
Stop Killer Robots. (n.d.). Problems with autonomous weapons. Retrieved from https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/stop-killer-robots/facts-about-autonomous-weapons/
United Nations Institute of Peace. (2025, June 18). The Element of Surprise: Space and Cyber Warfare in U.S.-China Rivalry. Retrieved from https://www.usip.org/publications/2025/06/element-surprise-space-and-cyber-warfare-us-china-rivalry
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. (n.d.). United Nations Convention against Cybercrime. Retrieved from https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/cybercrime/convention/home.html
Wikipedia. (n.d.). Splinternet. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Splinternet
